Gold storms to record $1,715

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON — The gold price was set for its second largest daily gain this year on Monday after the respective pledges by the G7 and the European Central Bank to quell the turbulence in the financial markets did nothing to put investors at ease.

In Europe, Spanish and Italian bond yields fell. Traders said the ECB had made good on its promise to solve the eurozone debt crisis by widening its bond-buying programme to include paper from those two nations.

Friday’s downgrade to the quality of U.S. sovereign debt by ratings agency Standard & Poor’s was widely anticipated, but its longer-term impact on anything from mortgage rates to the economy is unclear.

Investors have bought more gold in the last month than in the prior six months, looking at the increase in open interest on COMEX for speculators and money managers, as well as inflows into exchange-traded products.

Spot gold XAU was set for a second consecutive trading rally, up 2.7% from Friday at US$1,706.44 an ounce by 0900 GMT, having hit a record US$1,715.01 earlier and having traded at all-time highs in sterling XAUGBPR and euros XAUEURR.

“Everyone was talking about Armageddon at the weekend and this morning, it’s held the rot but doesn’t remove the themes that have been driving the stock markets,” said Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen.

“The question right now is if gold will be allowed to move much further. There has been a huge build-up in speculative and long positions across the board over the last couple of weeks, but I suppose that central banks buying more bonds is not helping the overall worry about how the economies are going to do over the months ahead,” he said.

According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which collects information on holdings of futures and options, and to ETF data collected by Reuters, investors bought over 18 million ounces of gold, or 30% of total identifiable investment demand in 2010, in the last month alone, compared with about 8.4 million in the year to early July.

Finance chiefs from the world’s industrial powers pledged on Sunday to take whatever actions were needed to steady financial markets, spooked by the political wrangling in Europe and the United States over slashing their huge budget deficits.

FEWER “SAFE” HAVENS?

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said U.S. Treasury debt is as safe as it was before the S&P downgrade, urging European leaders to ensure there is an “unequivocal financial backstop” for eurozone governments facing fiscal and debt problems.

“The uncertainty in the financial markets is keeping gold prices underpinned. It’s essentially safe-haven buying,” said Ong Yi Ling, investment analyst at Phillip Futures.

“One of the events that investors will watch is of course the FOMC meeting that is scheduled Tuesday … investors will scrutinise the statement on the assessment of the economy and outlook for monetary policy.”

Investors are watching for any statement on whether the Fed will ease monetary policy further.

The prospect of an even longer period of low U.S. interest rates prompted Goldman Sachsto raise its longer-term forecast for the gold price. Goldman said it had lifted its forecasts to US$1,645, US$1,730 and US$1,860 on a three-, six- and 12-month horizon, respectively. Goldman had previously forecast the gold price peaking at US$1,600 an ounce in mid-2012.

Meanwhile, gold in euros hit a record 1,195.66 euros an ounce, bringing gains in the last month alone to over 12%, while gold in sterling hit a peak of 1,043.76 pounds, for a gain of 9.3% in the same period.

In other precious metals, silver XAG got a lift from the strength in gold as it can sometimes act as a cheaper safe-haven proxy for investor.

Spot silver was last up 3.7% on the day at US$39.72 an ounce, while the more industrial platinum group metals reacted to the gloom in the broader commodity markets.

Platinum XPT was flat on the day, around US$1,714.00 an ounce, while palladium XPD was down nearly 2% at US$725.50. The palladium price has fallen by more than 14% in the last 6 trading days, since hitting a five-month high.

© Thomson Reuters 2011